Thursday, March 8, 2012

Last bit on this most interesting book - Unthinkable



So- more things to help us out here... from the book, continued-

She (author) talks about this thing called group-think - People often doing what others do, especially in a crisis event. Possibly it's a genetic herd-instinct thing coming out- maybe we "think" our best chances are of all of us sticking together, so we do. She defines group-think as "the adaptive strategy of prioritizing group harmony."

She talks about people clumping together, even in danger, if no one is moving! But the opposite can happen too- people can PANIC... as a form of group-think. Panic can be contagious...

She says- used to be that people thought that crowds were like water... they would easily flow out of an burning building or airplane. But instead what they find is fear and pain can influence the movement of people - people fall, they take short-cuts, they can pause to rest... but once a decision is made, people will statistically not change their minds; "Hey, let's go this way"... like they did on one of the twin towers- they went up, to the roof... but they found the doors had been locked.

Another thing is people do not always move together- some will take precious minutes to look for things to take with them, like briefcases, and pictures, etc. Or they will go looking for others, like friends or children, etc.

Also- the more noise there is, the more stressed people can get, and the more stressed people get, the less they are able to see clearly/think clearly, etc. And in some cases... thinking clearly is EXACTLY the thing people need to be able to do... and in many cases, we need to be able to do this relatively fast. "If you have to stop and think it through, then you will not have time to survive." This goes back to the idea of taking some time PRIOR to an event - like in an airport or restaurant, or whatever... and either physically walking through the things you need to do, or doing it in your mind... at least.



The Submissive Crowd
People have a tendency to congregate... to clump together, to seek human connection in a crisis. But also people have a tendency to panic or clump around and wait, or "they" take too long in deciding what to do. "If disasters breed groups, then groups need leaders."

and these group leaders she studied in crisis events all had something in common:
1- They did not bully their way into power - they got respect because they seems calm and credible
2- They were knowledgeable, aware of details, and decisive... but
3- They were also open to other opinions
Crisis Leadership Needed. People will need someone to keep them calm and walk (maybe literally) them through what they will need to do

People will be in psychological shock... and in many, their "brains" (that part of us that helps us make rational and intelligent decisions) may not work.

In a crisis, be: Strong (Folks - there is a fire here... ) Direct (...there are exits to your left rear and right rear) and Loud - people pay attention to LOUD! especially in a crisis!



She describes a community in the bayou of LA that all survived the Katrina event - they were close, strong community. They joined boats, and all moved out together. The children saw this as an extended "camping" experience... which is how they all seemed to keep a good head about them. It was serious, but they'd done this before - they'd practiced many times, and they all knew what needed to be done. They packed up and left a few days before the government put out mandatory evacuation orders because they'd seen this before... they knew.

She said places like this are "models of resilience" because they "proactively help each other survive. They value their community more than their possessions, and they also trust the groups collective decisions."


Healthier, higher functioning groups tend to do better in crises. and the opposite is true too. Your level of health and functionality is directly proportional to your collective handling of a crisis. So this gets us to church or small group dynamics, and even families. I've heard of families falling apart in crises- I mean, a crisis can either bring the family members together and make them closer or it can destroy it. So, a crisis can bring out what is already there.
Stronger communities seem to bring with them a higher chance of survival - for the group and the individuals involved.

How can we make our church/small group communities/families more resilient? Spend time together, get to know each other, learn to trust each other, learn to have faith in each other.



DECISIVE MOMENTS:

"We have passed through the denial and deliberation phases, and there is nothing left to do but act. What happens next will be, as we will see, very hard to undo. The decisive moments are the cumulative results of the delay and dread, of the influences of fear, resilience, and group-think."

"The last sage in the survival arc is over in a flash. It is the sudden distillation of everything that has come before, and it determines what, if anything, will come after. As in photography, what happens in this single moment depends on many things: timing, experience, sensibility - and perhaps most of all, luck,"

Panic- the basics here only...
The obvious- panic can, and usually does, KILL.
The less pbvious- people are more likely to do nothing at all than to panic.

What causes panic? Conditions for panic to set in:

1- "People must feel that they may be trapped. Knowing they are DEFINITELY trapped is not the same." But if they MIGHT be trapped... it's different.

2- "Panic requires a sensation of great helplessness- which often grows from interactions with others." if one person feels they are "lost"... and others begin to accept that, then they see their inner feelings reflected in others... and it can spread.

3- "The final prerequisite to panic is a sense of profound isolation." but if you're with others, how can you feel isolated? Well, when you feel powerless, and everyone else does too, then you feel "exquisitely alone".
And comes the mad rush to the doors... which causes the doorway to jam with people, and then NO ONE gets out. so... tell people - yell if you have to (to snap them out of this feeling of impending dread)- to SLOWLY but steadily move to the exits. This orderly exit assures MORE survivors.


How can you tell who is more disposed to panic? A research doctor studied this, and was able to surprisingly predict with pretty high certainty who of his test subjects would panic and who would not. There are two different types of anxiety:

"The first is 'state anxiety', which describes how a person reacts to stressful situations, like a big exam or a traffic jam. The other is 'trait anxiety', which refers to a person's general tendency to see things as stressful to begin with. Trait anxiety, in other words, is your resting level of anxiety on any given day."

People with higher trait anxiety are more likely to give way to panic than people with a lower level of trait anxiety.

But the more likely human action in a crisis is paralysis... it is far more common, and... we may actually be more hardwired for this. It seems to happen in mammals pretty often - birds especially. It seems the prey animal is often prey because it has drawn the attention of thee predator... by running. Once it stops moving, it often can cause the predator to lose interest. Thing is often, people who've gone through this personally have left feeling guilty - "Why didn't I do" this -or -that thing????? Little consolation, but your biology took over.

Paralysis often occurs in the presence of extreme fear. So the idea here is... lower the fear level and you lower the possibility of paralysis. So, how do you do that? Well, one way is to put yourself in similar situations over and over until you get - as you can in something like this - more used to it. Easier said than done... but this is why the military/police/firefighters put them selves in training environments that simulate the "real" thing so when the "real" thing happens - they can more easily say - "I know what to do here."

Preparation is the best antidote. The second best is leadership!


Preparation can be as simple as - "Make a plan"... even in your mind. You're at a movie... take a few seconds to locate the exits. What is this one is blocked? Where's another one. That's much better than nothing at all! And walking through an exercise is much better than just thinking it through in your head.


Well, there's a little more to the book- and it had very good example and studies, so I recommend it, but this is pretty much it.



Any comments - stories - ideas - thoughts?

I'd love to engage-



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